Monday – 27th January
Germany Ifo Business Climate Index: Sentiment in Europe’s largest economy will be closely monitored amid inflation pressures and broader economic uncertainty. A weaker-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations of ECB intervention.
DeepSeek Fallout: Markets are expected to further react to the disruptive implications of China’s AI advancements, with US tech futures signalling continued pressure. Broader concerns about global supply chains and chip shortages are expected to dominate discussions.
Tuesday – 28th January
US Durable Goods Orders: December data will provide insights into capital spending trends, with analysts watching for signs of industrial strength as an offset to slowing tech sector momentum.
Corporate Earnings: Reports from Boeing, Starbucks, and GM will shed light on consumer resilience, manufacturing dynamics, and discretionary spending habits.
Wednesday – 29th January
Federal Reserve Meeting: Investors anticipate a pause in rate cuts. Powell’s commentary on inflationary trends and growth forecasts will be key for market sentiment, particularly given the recent resilience in housing data.
Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla Earnings: Updates on AI spending, guidance on key product launches, and competitive positioning will be scrutinised amid heightened investor scepticism.
Thursday – 30th January
ECB Meeting: Markets expect a 25bps rate cut, with inflation data and forward guidance in focus. The ECB’s ability to balance growth risks with inflationary divergence across member states will be critical.
US Q4 GDP: Advance estimates highlighting 2.7% growth will validate or challenge the narrative of economic resilience. Analysts will also monitor revisions to prior quarters for signs of momentum shifts.
Apple Earnings: AI spending initiatives, device refresh cycles, and commentary on China’s consumer market will be pivotal for sentiment.
Friday – 31st January
US Core PCE Price Index: A critical measure shaping expectations for Fed policy in 2025, particularly in light of moderating rental costs and consumer spending trends.
Japan Industrial Production and Unemployment: Insights into the trajectory of Japan’s economy amid global shifts will add nuance to BoJ policy outlooks.
Commentary and Outlook
Tech Sector Pressures: The disruptive potential of DeepSeek’s AI model casts uncertainty over the sector. Meta’s $65 billion AI investment plans highlight the stakes for US tech. Meanwhile, heightened regulatory scrutiny across key markets adds another layer of complexity.
Central Bank Divergences: While the Fed pauses, the ECB’s dovish outlook underscores weaker Eurozone growth. Diverging policies may amplify currency volatility, with knock-on effects across emerging markets.
Geopolitical Concerns: US-China relations, including potential tariff actions, remain central to global market risks. Additionally, uncertainty around President Trump’s trade policies adds volatility to commodities and global equities.
The coming week holds significant potential for market shifts, with central bank actions and tech sector developments taking the lead. Consequently, investors should remain nimble, balancing sector optimism with macroeconomic caution amid ongoing policy uncertainty.