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UK Market Insights

Quick Takes - Budget Aftermath Echoes Mini-Budget Woes as Gilt Yields Surge and Sterling Wavers

SR Team - 4 November 2024

The ghost of mini-budget past haunts Labour's daring fiscal gambit, with Gilt yields surging skyward and Sterling finding itself on shaky ground. Consequently, the new government's borrowing costs will have soared in the wake of the budget and accompanying OBR report, which called this one of the largest loosenings of any fiscal event in recent decades. Looking forward, the pound remains precariously positioned, with any signs of waning confidence from international investors potentially triggering a more severe sell-off in the bond market.

This weakening is not helped by a resilient Dollar, leading sterling to fall to a two-month low against USD despite general market uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election. In equity markets, the initial reaction was far from universal, with the AIM rallying as changes to IHT proved less severe than feared, however today, markets have come firmly into agreement, all to the downside, as the fiscal alarm bells begin to ring.