Caught between manifesto promises and fiscal realities, Chancellor Reeves has opted to squeeze employers with an NI gambit that bets on the resilience and adaptability of UK businesses. After an endless stream of leaks and policy speculation, the headline increase to 15% was overshadowed by the dramatic lowering of the threshold at which companies start paying these contributions. Yet this comes at a time when underlying business confidence is deteriorating rapidly.

Consequently, this policy represents a significant additional challenge for businesses, particularly in labour-intensive sectors, with the long-term impact on growth uncertain. Furthermore, despite trying to avoid impacting so-called ‘working people’, this targeting of employers could stifle job creation in a period where growth is imperative for continuing the UK’s economic recovery. Only time will tell if this bold move will be remembered as a fiscal masterstroke or a costly misstep in Labour's economic strategy.