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UK Market Insights

Quick Takes - US Jobs Boom Defies Expectations, Complicating Fed's Rate Cut Plans

SR Team - 4 October 2024

The US labour market goes supernova, leaving economists' forecasts in the dust and potentially throwing a spanner in the works of the Fed's policy plans. This humdinger of a jobs report comes at a crucial juncture, as markets have eagerly anticipated signs of moderation that justify the Fed's recent dovish pivot. This latest data may force a reassessment of the anticipated rate cut trajectory, with the prospect of a 50bps cut in November, now far less likely.

Equity markets, buoyed by hopes of a 'Goldilocks' scenario, may face headwinds as investors grapple with the implications of sustained labour market strength. There will be downward pressure on gold prices, with the Fed likely to maintain a more hawkish stance, however, the dollar will strengthen on the back of this data. As the dust settles on this extraordinary jobs report, investors are left to ponder the implications of an economy that refuses to be tamed, which has undoubtedly complicated the Fed’s next move.