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UK Market Insights

Quick Takes - US JOLTS Data Reveals Paradoxical Job Market

SR Team - 1 October 2024

The job market defies gravity with the latest JOLTS data revealing a labour market that refuses to buckle under the weight of economic pressures, throwing a spanner in the works of the 'cooling’ narrative. However, August's report paints a paradoxical picture of the employment landscape, with a surge in job openings indicating that employer demand remains robust. Yet the level of job quits has plummeted to a three-year low, with employees more hesitant to leave current positions due to uncertainty.

For the Fed, these figures present a conundrum, with the resilience in job openings being seen as inflationary, giving the Fed ample reason to pause its rate-cutting ambitions. Conversely, the decline in quits might indicate growing worker insecurity, which could support the case for monetary easing. With Friday's non-farm payrolls report looming, the market is likely to expect an upside surprise, with the JOLTs data suggesting that employer demand remains stronger than previously thought.