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Investment Research

Key Events Shaping The Week Ahead - 30th September 2024

SR Team - 30 September 2024

As we enter the final quarter of 2024, global markets face a crucial week with a series of significant economic indicators and central bank decisions. Investors will particularly focus on inflation trends, labour market dynamics, and monetary policy trajectories. These indicators have the potential to shape further policy decisions and influence overall market sentiment as investors assess the health of major economies.

Monday, 30th September:

  • German Retail Sales (August): This data will provide insights into consumer spending trends in Europe's largest economy, potentially influencing ECB policy decisions.

  • China NBS PMI (September): A key indicator of Chinese manufacturing activity, offering a glimpse into the world's second-largest economy's performance.

  • UK GDP (Q2, final): The final reading of Q2 economic growth for the UK will confirm the pace of recovery and may impact Bank of England policy expectations.

  • German Inflation (September, preliminary): This inflation data is crucial for gauging price pressures in the Eurozone's largest economy and will be closely watched by the ECB.

  • US Fed Powell Speech: Federal Reserve Chair Powell's comments could provide valuable insights into the central bank's monetary policy outlook following recent rate decisions.

Tuesday, 1st October:

  • Worldwide Manufacturing PMIs (September): These indices will offer a global snapshot of the health of the manufacturing sector in major economies.

  • Eurozone Inflation (September, flash): This preliminary inflation reading is critical for ECB policy decisions and could influence expectations for future rate moves.

  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI (September): A key indicator of US industrial activity, providing insights into the manufacturing sector's health.

Wednesday, 2nd October:

  • UK Nationwide House Price Index (September): This report will offer insights into the UK housing market, which is a significant indicator of overall economic health and consumer confidence.

  • US ADP Employment Change (September): This private-sector job creation data serves as a precursor to the official non-farm payrolls report.

Thursday, 3rd October:

  • Worldwide Services PMIs (September): These indices will provide a comprehensive view of global services sector activity.

  • US Initial Jobless Claims: Weekly unemployment claims data offers a timely snapshot of the US labour market's health.

  • US ISM Services PMI (September): An important indicator of non-manufacturing sector activity in the world's largest economy.

Friday, 4 October:

  • UK S&P Global Construction PMI (September): This index will provide insights into the health of the UK construction sector, which is an important component of the country's economy.

  • US Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings (September): This crucial labour market data will be closely watched for its potential impact on Fed policy decisions and overall economic outlook.

The first week of October presents a packed economic calendar, with global PMI data, inflation readings, and the US jobs report taking centre stage. The addition of the UK Nationwide HPI and S&P Global Construction PMI will provide further insights into the British economy. Additionally, investors should pay particular attention to Fed Chair Powell's speech and the US labour market data for potential market driving insights as we move into the final quarter of 2024.